The opening of September brought a cacophony of market-moving events, from renewed U.S. bombing of Iran to a sharp spike in crude oil and rising bond yields. In Episode 816 of DH Unplugged, hosts Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak dissect these developments, framing the month's classic volatility against a backdrop of eroding institutional trust and a Federal Reserve caught between political pressure and a wobbly labor market.
Crude oil surged roughly 13% in two weeks to about $91.80, with diesel crack spreads flashing inflation warnings. The hosts point to this as a key indicator for consumer prices and central bank policy. Meanwhile, bond yields are on the rise, reflecting investor unease about fiscal policy and the Fed's next moves. Horowitz is blunt about the administration's credibility: "The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now," he says, adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has "really gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets." Dvorak connects the dots to bond yields and the dollar, noting that currencies, equities, and even private valuations ultimately rest on one thing: trust. "It's a series of very large trust factors," he argues, warning that tariff escalation echoing Smoot-Hawley would signal that America no longer believes it can compete.
Corporate earnings offered a mixed bag. Dell provided blowout guidance, projecting fiscal 2027 EPS near $25.50 versus $18.99 prior, on the back of 40% data center share. In contrast, Dick's Sporting Goods plunged roughly 30% as Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. Target faced a Halloween clown costume backlash, highlighting the return of brand-management landmines in an era of social media scrutiny.
The hosts also delve into government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, and the lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement. Horowitz, who discloses a personal short position in Intel, questions why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasts the U.S. approach with China's state-owned enterprise model and flags GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip.
Geopolitical tensions remain high after President Trump's Fox News threat that Iran will be "totally wiped out as a country" if it retaliates again. The hosts also touch on LEGO's 21% first-half revenue jump and the baseball-card casino economy drawing scrutiny from Japanese regulators. With Friday's August payrolls, ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data on tap, the episode sets the stage for a turbulent month ahead.
