Two years after Tropical Storm Helene struck Western North Carolina, new data reveals that Buncombe County has undergone the most dramatic domestic migration reversal of any large county in the United States. According to an analysis by Asheville-based Dry Ridge Moving, the county saw a swing of 13.7 net movers per 1,000 residents between the year before the storm and the year after, the largest such shift among the 620 U.S. counties with at least 100,000 residents. The findings underscore how natural disasters can fundamentally alter population trends, with implications for housing markets, labor forces, and regional economies.
Before Helene, Buncombe County was a magnet for domestic migration, gaining 1,768 more residents than it lost to other U.S. counties in the year prior to the storm. In the year after, that trend inverted: 2,056 more people left than arrived. The reversal left the county with 1,810 fewer residents in July 2025 than a year earlier, marking its first annual population decline since at least 2000, according to Census estimates released in March. The next-largest reversal, in Craighead County, Arkansas, was 12.1 net movers per 1,000 residents—well below Buncombe's shift.
The housing market has also transformed. Active home listings in Buncombe County jumped from 886 in August 2024 to 1,799 in August 2026, a 103 percent increase, compared with just 25 percent nationally, based on Realtor.com data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Homes now sit on the market for a median of 78 days, up from 54. Zillow's typical home value in the county fell 5.6 percent between September 2024 and July 2026, even as national values rose 1.1 percent. This surge in inventory and softening prices suggest a market adjusting to reduced demand, potentially offering relief to buyers but posing challenges for sellers.
The local workforce has contracted as well. Buncombe County's civilian labor force—those working or actively seeking work—stood at 135,287 in July 2026, 5.8 percent lower than in July 2024, according to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Statewide, the labor force fell only 1.2 percent over the same period. The county's unemployment rate, which spiked after the storm, was 3.4 percent in July 2026, indicating that while fewer people are participating in the labor market, those remaining are largely employed.
While Buncombe's reversal is stark, the broader region has fared better. Across 23 North Carolina counties declared disaster areas after Helene, net domestic migration fell 54.5 percent, from 9,183 to 4,180, but remained positive. Henderson County actually added 1,089 residents. This suggests that the storm's impact on migration was most acute in Buncombe, possibly due to the severity of damage in Asheville and surrounding areas.
Historical IRS migration data from tax years 2022 and 2023 shows the patterns the storm disrupted. Florida was the leading out-of-state source of new households for Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Madison, and Transylvania counties, with 1,315 households moving in. South Carolina, particularly Greenville and Spartanburg counties, was the top destination for households leaving the area, with 1,111. These flows highlight the interconnectedness of Western North Carolina with other Southeastern states and suggest that the storm may have accelerated or reversed existing migration trends.
The study notes that Census estimates are revised annually and may not fully capture temporary displacement, and that 2026 county labor force figures are preliminary. The next county population estimates, expected in spring 2027, will show whether the migration reversal continued. For now, the data paints a picture of a community still grappling with the aftermath of a devastating storm, with long-term consequences for its demographic and economic future. The full study, including methodology, charts, and downloadable county data, is available on the Dry Ridge Moving website.
