Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported second-quarter 2026 results that highlight a visible operating inflection, according to an update from Stonegate Capital Partners. The company achieved positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, driven by quarterly 45Z recognition, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and improved ethanol economics. These gains more than offset weaker revenue from India, which was affected by the timing of OMC tenders.
Revenue for the quarter increased 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially to $62.7 million, falling short of the $68.6 million consensus. However, Stonegate’s normalized EPS estimate of negative $0.11 exceeded the consensus estimate of negative $0.24. The underlying results were stronger than the revenue variance suggests, as both California businesses delivered higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution.
Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a loss of $3.4 million in the prior-year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, compared to negative $5.8 million a year ago. The dairy RNG segment remains the clearest growth driver, with sales volume increasing 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu. Segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Seven approved LCFS pathways with an average negative carbon intensity of 380 are already improving credit economics. Additionally, six more pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes earnings bridge continues to advance, with the mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system targeted for operation by year-end 2026. Management estimates approximately $32 million in annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027, but the balance sheet remains the primary constraint on the thesis. The company holds $1.0 million in unrestricted cash and $415.9 million in total debt, making refinancing progress critical to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.
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